Emini Trading Blog

Archive for the ‘trend’ Category

Many emini traders, believe it or not, aren’t aware of what we’re about to discuss here. Most absolute beginner emini traders try to catch tops and bottoms in the futures market, not even trying to trade the TRENDS. We, like many other traders first starting attempted to do the same thing. We know this from not only our own personal experiences, but by teaching and talking to tens of thousands of traders that they tend to do the same thing.

Many (if not most) emini traders feel that by trying to catch a market top or bottom is where the real money is. We on the other hand disagree completely. Catching just a little piece of a trend (and sometimes much larger than a little piece) adds up, not to mention easier (higher percentages) to do than trying to catch a top or bottom in the market. So, we thought by including this topic; Trend Trading vs. Counter-Trend Trading would be very helpful to you. We know this will give you more insight into both of these types of trades.

Let us first start out by saying that at least 80% of your trades should be those trading with the TREND (as taught in this Course – ‘Trend Determination’, etc.). The other remaining 20% or so can constitute COUNTER TREND (CT) trades. We would highly suggest concentrating more (at least in the beginning) on the TREND trades as opposed to trying to pick tops and bottoms (CT trades). By not only teaching, but by speaking with students, especially beginners, we find that most traders simply just try to pick tops and bottoms as opposed to trying to enter the market with the (overall) TREND.

We’ll go as far as to say you probably will not become a successful emini trader by trying to pick tops and bottoms when you first start off trading. Counter-Trend (CT) trading takes a lot more experience. Believe us when we say that you’ll not only find emini trading less stressful, but much more rewarding and profitable if you simply stick to trading with a markets (overall) TREND. Look to make consistent profits utilizing the profit objectives (PO’s) taught in this Course — and of course you’ll occasionally catch the bigger move (by utilizing the ‘Trailing Stop’ methods taught in this Course).

Of the 20% or so of trades that may become COUNTER TREND (CT) trades, 80% of those trades should be BUYS. Why Buys? Simply put, because we’ve found that BOTTOMS are much easier to pick than tops. If you think about it, the psychology of most traders are more biased to buying the market as opposed to selling the market as a whole. Traders in general seem to be more optimistic rather than pessimistic on the overall market. We’ve spoken to thousands of traders that have expressed to us that they feel more comfortable buying the market as opposed to selling it. We know that sounds ridiculous, and we agree, but many (if not most) traders, believe it or not, feel this way. That’s one of the reasons why bottoms seem to be easier to pick than tops – traders are more prone to Buy than they are to Sell.

Think about it, how many stock traders do you know that actually sell a stock short? Not many, most stock traders buy stocks in anticipation of higher prices. When the market gets extremely oversold and drops to levels where the big money comes in to Buy the market (oftentimes at a 5%, 10% & 15% overall market corrections), you’ll oftentimes see the market move higher (spike up) and continue the markets (stocks) overall UPTREND .

When the market is in a DOWNTREND, the market not only drops three times quicker than it rises (making it much more volatile), but bottoms are put in place much quicker. This is evident in any chart you look at. On the other hand, when the market is trending up, the market generally moves much slower and much more gradual in nature. Therefore, trying to find market tops are much more difficult to do, at least that’s been our personal experience.

So, when attempting to BUY on a Retest of a Low (important), the market is generally in a Downtrend, and when attempting to SELL on a Retest of a High (important), the market is generally in an Uptrend. By knowing these two simple rules will help make Counter-Trend trading much more predictable in nature, rather than trying to BUY when the market is in a free-fall, or trying to SELL when the market is going to the moon. At most, these rules will help prevent you from jumping in front of a freight train.

Therefore, I suggest waiting for a RETEST OF A HIGH before looking to go Sell Short. Conversely, wait for a RETEST OF A LOW before looking to go Long. Remember, Counter-Trend trades should only constitute roughly 20% or so of your trades. As mentioned before, CT trades are definitely more difficult than trading with the markets overall TREND.

A General Rule Of Thumb: When the emini market is Trending Up, the market tends to be a lot less volatile than when a market is Trending Down. Therefore, generally speaking a Down Trending market is much more volatile than when a market is trending up. A market falls roughly three times quicker than it rises.

Any trade in the futures market has essentially a binary outcome, the market either goes up or the market goes down. Of course, I am aware of the fact that you might well argue that the market stays the same and claim an anti-binary bias, but the fact of the matter is the market seldom, if ever, stays the same. Price movement is constant, especially in the scalping style of trading.

The problem arises with oscillators, which essentially measure market momentum. We are all aware that the price can easily, and often does, decline during a period of time that momentum oscillators show postive momentum. This is a constant problem traders face when trading with momentum based oscillators. We all want to trade with the trend, and I have a personal trading style that precludes any counter-trend trades. My psche simply can’t endure the relative success/failure rate on counter-trend trades. I will also freely admit that counter-trend trades can often be among the most profitable trades you can make. The problem arises when you take into consideration the relative failure rate, and/or false indications in the change of the trend. That being said, I usually strike an 89 period simple average line on my trading charts and ignore all trades above or below this line. It is a simple way to stay with the trend. It is a bit primitive, though.

As a general rule, I like to trade 233 tick charts, which, I realize, is a bit faster moving than some individuals prefer to proceed, but I have grown quite accustomed to idiosyncrasies of this chart configuration and usually profit handsomely for the information gleaned from tick charts. You can get a great idea as to the current volume in the market by how fast the bars fill. So I generally don’t chart volume, but glean the velocity of the market by the pace at which the bars fill. Incidently, I am a candlestick guy, for no particular reason other than I have always traded candlesticks.

But let us return to the inherent flaws in momentum oscillators in discerning price movement. Again, I reiterate that momentum in the market can appear to be positive, whiile the price is actually falling. This is a situation that often results in losing trades, and endless frustration for the trader. After all, one reasons that if the market is in an upward swing, how in the heck does the price action suddently veer to the negative?

The realization is a simple one: Price momentum and price action do not always have a positive correlation. Now this is a difficult, often impossible, concept for some traders to conceptualize.  My answer to the problem is a fairly simple one. I use dual time frame oscillators to chart my trades? On the one hand, I use a longer time frame oscillator to get a feel for the overall momentum of the market, and a shorter term oscillator to determine the the actual price action in the market. I have experimented for years with different settings to achieve optimal results, and for scalping I have become comfortable with a 60 period look back on the longer term oscillator and a 15 period look back on the shorter term oscillator. In effect, I get a good guage on both the momentum of the market and the price action in the market,

One quick note: I can notice when the momentum is falling and the price is falling and find it easier to pick up on trend reversals. While the system is not foolproof, it gives the trader an accurate picture of what is actually occuring in the market, and good information if he or she decides that taking that all-to-risky counter-trend trade has a decent probability for success. Myself, I usually wait until the trend has really changed before I jump into a trade, but great money, some of the best money, can be made for those who are not of the faint-of-heart and can bring themselves to trade against the trend.

The keep point of this discussion is simple: Momentum oscillators are essentially flawed because they are not great indicators of price action. Trade in a dual time frame setting and increase your chances for success in trend reversals.